Flopped Set of Nines: Get All In on Flop or Wait?
DECISION POINT: In a $5/$10 no-limit hold'em cash game, a player limps from under the gun and it folds to another in middle position who raises. The hijack and cutoff both call the raise, and you call as well from the button with . The blinds both fold, and the UTG player calls.
The flop comes . The UTG player checks, and the player in middle position who raised preflop bets. Both the hijack and cutoff fold. Action is on you...
PRO ANSWER: Given that the middle position player raised a UTG limper preflop and then continuation bet into four opponents on this ace-high board, the player's range is heavily skewed towards big hands plus perhaps . Hands such as , and really dominate the player's range.
As a default play, we should raise now in this hand. Our opponent is unlikely to fold much of that range given remaining stacks relative to the pot, plus a diamond on the turn often hurts our ability to win additional chips against one-pair hands.
Since a standard raise represents about half of the middle position player's remaining stack, we can move all in instead of raising to a smaller amount. Raising to a smaller amount is also a viable option, however moving all in is our best default play.
If this flop was seen heads-up, our opponent could have many more bluffs in a c-betting range and we could often call this c-bet to allow the player to fire again on the turn.
However, given how well defined the middle position player's range is in this hand along with the fact that the player isn't likely to fold much of that range, we can just get the chips in now by jamming on the flop.
Moving all in is the best play.
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